Why Has The Number Of New Podcasts Plummeted?

 At one point in podcasting's ascendancy to media relevance, there was a joke that every person would have their own podcast. It would be like a Facebook account. 

Well, recent data suggests strongly that the number of new podcasts has been declining for the last three years. You can now breathe a sigh of relief that your Uncle Gus will cancel plans for his daily podcast on the science of sock matching.

So what do the numbers say? The number of new podcasts has plummeted each year since 2020. The most drastic change was after 2021, when the number of new podcasts dropped 67 percent. 

The source for this data is Listen Notes, as published by Inside Podcasting on October 12. Listen Notes is a podcast search engine and data collector.

In fact, between 2022 and 2023, the number of new podcasts has dropped by 33 percent, suggesting that there are fewer new shows for another year. Leading up to 2020, there was a steady rise, and then a boom of new podcasts, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, took place in that year. The percentage of new podcasts grew by 202 percent.

So far, in 2023, there have been 161,049 new podcasts with fewer than two months to go in the year. For 2022, there were 241,193 shows that debuted.

More data: The data suggests that podcasts won't grow much over the next two months. In March of this year, 21,630 new podcasts debuted, and the numbers have trended downward every month since. Only 2,235 new podcasts debuted in September.

So, what does all this data mean? Why is the number of new podcasts declining?

We're going to offer some possible reasons, with the caveat that these reasons are neither comprehensive nor exhaustively researched.

First, the podcasting industry is suffering from the malaise created from the over exuberance of large companies like Spotify. As 2023 progressed, news stories about layoffs throughout the industry spawn new stories every week. Recently, New York Public Radio laid off 20 staffers, or six percent of its workforce last week.

The cuts to the studio's podcast division reflects an industry-wide tremor, as the proliferation of podcasts has made competition for sponsors brutally competitive. Podcast companies have been slashing positions or folding divisions entirely, amidst a reported downturn in advertising revenue.   

 Second, the growth of podcast networks from Acast to Vox has driven some of the indie podcasters out of the business. Podcasting has always had the competitive advantage of exploring sub-genres not available to TV, radio, or film due to their top-heavy financial structures. Podcasting can do shows about Billboard's music charts (Slate's Hit Parade), geeky entrepreneurs (Nerdpreneur) and even a show about kindness (The Art Of Kindness). 

Today, however, podcasting is inundated with true-crime shows that sound alike except for the crime. Sometimes, they even cover the same crime. Interview shows -- especially with celebrities -- proliferate like bed bugs in a Parisian hotel -- with everyone one of them announcing how they have "the hard conversations" and "ask the tough questions."

Third, advertising dollars are stretched thin with so many shows, and monetization becomes more difficult as those dollars are scooped up by network-supported shows. After all, monetization through donations, merchandising, and brand extensions like books and classes can only take you so far. 

Fourth, the percentage of Americans who listen to a podcast regularly continues to grow, and that's a positive development. Yet, podcasting has also relied on its "superfans" who listen to 30 or 40 podcasts on a regular basis. What podcasting needs is a broader audience. After all, the number of podcast listeners over 55 years old is growing at an agonizingly slow pace. So, we have an inverse age relationship to TV. Fox News, NCIS, Blue Bloods, and all those Law & Order shows capture an age group that begins in the 60-year-old bracket and goes upwards. 

Podcasting has the opposite age dynamic, with younger people making up a large part of the listening audience. That's a net positive for podcasting because Fox News viewers will disappear due to mortality, while podcasting audiences will grow as new generations pick up the habit. Yet, losing an important age group in the growth of podcasting isn't a trend to dismiss so lightly as some have.

Fifth, the growth of video podcasts via YouTube is also very much a mixed blessing. Podcasting thrives because it's a media activity people can engage in while doing something else -- commuting, working around the house, exercising, and even at work (shh, don't tell the boss). 

Video podcasts demand more of a person's attention, thereby negating that natural advantage. Second, video podcasts are more expensive to produce and naturally weed out new, aspirational podcasters who now discover that their upfront costs before recording the first episode have now tripled. 

Finally, make no mistake that podcasting is still overflowing with podcasts. I do podcast reviews and recommendations for a meager living, and I could review ear-worthy podcasts every hour of every day for the next ten years and still not scratch the surface of the quality podcasting in this audio universe.