Four Trends That Can Endanger Podcasting In 2024

 Let's begin with a fast review of 2023 in podcasting. Large companies like Spotify, which had stumbled into podcasting two years ago with no strategic business plan, were partially responsible for the boom and bust cycle that afflicted podcasting. 

As these large players flooded the zone with even more podcasts, more shows chased fewer ad dollars. Quality suffered, independent podcasters were hurt, and listeners grew angry and confused as chaos was the new frequency emanating from podcasting.

Cutbacks ensued, and spread to the entire industry. People were hurt, careers damaged, livelihoods suffered, and listeners baffled.

Perhaps a correction is in store for 2024, with large players like Spotify being more thoughtful and careful in their approach to podcasting. We shall see.

The economy itself is on firmer footing, with inflationary fires smothered, employment still strong, corporate profits healthy and the equity markets in a positive mood. 

I will leave the forecasts to podcast experts with far more insight into the industry than I have. I will, however, offer a warning about several incipient trends that could damage the industry -- two of which can have long-term, deleterious consequences.

So, let's cover these four trends that can endanger podcasting in 2024.

We'll start with the two that have shorter-term consequences.

1.  Celebrities using podcasting for reputational cleansing

 I'm not going to dump on all celebrities that have entered the podcasting space. Smartless Media -- Will Arnett, Jason Bateman, Sean Hayes -- have been judicious and -- unlike their name -- smart about thriving in the podcasting space. Too many celebrities think they can use podcasting to repair their damaged reputations. Slept with someone's husband? Start a podcast to explain why I'm not a complete narcissistic douche. Acted like a total jackass on a TV reality show? Start a podcast and explain that producers edited the show in such a way that they never showed my better side -- like when I let that old woman have the last banana at the Hampton Inn free continental breakfast. 

So many social media influencers think that social media video time constraints are unfair and the unfettered nature of podcasting will let their true nature shine through to their fans. What we get is someone who knows way too much about nail polish and not enough about how the world works.

2. The continuing proliferation of true-crime podcasts

Let me be clear. I have nothing against true-crime podcasts. But true-crime podcasters on TV shows have become a meme, and not in a good way.

I've seen numerous TV shows where the true-crime podcaster is quirky, unbalanced, and will stop at nothing to solve a crime. Think season two of The Lincoln Lawyer as a prime example.

 It's ironic that podcast tracking surveys reveal that listeners find the comedy genre the most inviting, yet true-crime podcasts by large podcast networks appear almost daily with the crusading host either solving a cold case, proving someone who was already found guilty, innocent, or solving a murder when the "perp" has not already been identified or caught. 

One of the best ways to misinform the American public about current crime trends is to inundate podcasting with so many crime shows that most people are afraid to walk to their mailbox without a rocket launcher strapped to their back.

It's gotten so bad, that we now have a new true-crime podcast called, "Truer Crime." Now, that's jumping the shark. Today, most of the information spread by elected officials, cable news networks like Fox News, ideologically extreme podcasts like The War Room, is false. We are not even close to true, yet now we are at "Truer."

Let's pause at true until we can get that concept right.

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Now, let's discuss the last two trends that can have serious long-term consequences for podcasting.

3. Infiltration of misinformation / disinformation

Podcasting is a fragmented medium, and podcasts exist across lots of different platforms and apps, encouraging all kinds of speech.

According to podcast consultant George Witt, it's harder to ferret out falsehoods and hate speech in podcasts compared with posts written on Facebook and Twitter.

But audio can be a powerful way to spread misinformation because of all the qualities that make the format so compelling to listeners, said Valerie Wirtschafter, a senior data analyst at the Brookings Institution.

"The podcaster is in your ear," she said. "It's a unique relationship in that respect, and so the podcaster gains a level of authority and a level of credibility among listeners."

Joe Rogan is one of the most popular podcasts and has been for years. Rogan did help to elevate the visibility of podcasts. Yet, the former MMA fighter periodically goes off on these conspiracy theory tangents as if he's overdosed on some of his own branded supplements. 

Remember the Robert Malone vaccine misinformation episode, or how Rogan was able to bypass the Spotify banning of Alex Jones and have him back on his show to again denigrate the parents of children killed at Sandy Hook. 

Or comedian-guest Tim Dillon claiming that Democrats created the COVID hoax to prevent "the private ownership of cars." Dillon needs more of Rogan's Alpha Brain. Or less.

On the January 18th episode, Rogan used the "Adam & Eve" magnetic pole conspiracy theory to downplay the climate crisis and calls efforts to address it “a moot point.”

Climate change is “this narrative that just gets repeated over and over and over and this fearmongering and everyone gets freaked out,” Rogan tells his guest, YouTuber Jimmy Corsetti, in the episode. “If the f***ing magnetic poles might shift, and we might get hit by a giant rock from space, we might have bigger problems.”

Then, we have the treasure hunt promoted by Rogan in that same month in the East River, off the Manhattan shoreline, prompted by a report by a guest, who is a fossil collector. No treasure was found, and the Coast Guard had to warn treasure hunters about potential dangers.

Then, we have the July episode this year with comic Jim Gaffigan when Rogan said, "The January 6 thing is bad, but also, the intelligence agencies were involved in provoking people into the Capitol building. That’s a fact."

That's not a fact, and Gaffigan poked holes in that "fact" without even working up a sweat.

Then, we have the most recent misinformation flub where Rogan went off on Biden's mental capabilities because Rogan claimed the president said, "the U.S. lost the Revolutionary War because they didn’t have enough airports.” As it turns out, Biden was mocking Trump, who was actually was the author of that crazed statement. When Rogan discovered his mistake, his on-air response was not to question Trump's mental acuity, but to say that he f***ed up and then Rogan's guest blamed Trump's quote on the media."

I think Joe Rogan can be a powerful, positive influence on podcasting. Only he knows if he wants to be.

There is an entire ecosystem of podcasts that thrive on misinformation and disinformation. On Steve Bannon's The War Room podcast, he is taking his own advice, which was his oft-quoted remark, "to flood the zone with shit.”

 Large podcast networks have given rise to these podcasts that spread misinformation and disinformation. The excuse the companies give is that these podcasts have "a passionate fanbase." 

Sure, so did white supremacists and neo-Nazis, but that doesn't mean you have to get them a platform in order to sell ads.

Podcasting needs to clean up the detritus of junk science, political axe-grinding, outright lies, crazy conspiracy theories, and alternate universe theories. If it does not, it'll be like Elon Musk's X, a now comfortable landing spot for every hate-filled conspiracy theorist who got loose from his parents' basement.

4. Independent podcasts as an endangered species

Podcasting used to be a convivial, collegial medium where podcasters collaborated for the mutual benefit of the medium. Then Spotify, Amazon, iHeart and others, worried only about the bottom line and stock price, jumped into the industry full of cash and empty of any common sense. 

 Independent podcasts started podcasting. Podcasting began as a basement endeavor, not financed by Warren Buffett or despicable private equity types.

Despite their lack of money and resources, independent podcasts are often better quality. These indie podcasts don't pander to their audience like, say, Cumulus or SiriusXM podcasts often do.

Also, indie podcasts don't infect us with self-absorbed influencers, disgraced celebrities, and obnoxious "tools" to generate downloads and ad dollars.

However, independent podcasts are endangered, just like amphibians (frogs and salamanders). As the big boys (or girls) like Spotify trounced all over the podcasting industry in the last two years, attempting to dominate, something definitely expected happened. 

Podcast fans can choose independent podcasts over the large podcast networks in 2024. I know it's a "Big Ask," but without these valuable people who risk everything to follow a dream, podcasting is just another entertainment medium owned by "Big Media."

Let me introduce you to some of these indie podcast pioneers. 

Jenn Trepeck of Salad with A Side Of Fries, wants to help people live healthier lives.

Emily McElwreath of The Art Career podcast celebrates the arts, the people involved, and the value the arts add to the vibrancy of our culture. Most importantly, the podcast illustrates that the arts can be a solution, a coping mechanism, and a way forward when dealing with chronic societal problems such as domestic violence.

Two adult adoptees, Sarah Reinhardt and Louise Browne, decided to delve into all things adoption, from their perspectives as adult adoptees, to DNA testing, to nature vs. nurture and beyond. It's a masterclass in the importance of family. Bring tissues to Adoption: The Making Of Me.

 Host Evan Stern of Vanishing Postcards is the connective tissue that illustrates how Americans revel in their distinctness but still have much in common. It’s a documentary travelogue that invites listeners on a road trip exploring the hidden dives and histories found by exiting the interstates.

And, since life can sometimes beat us down, host Matt Gilhooly of  The Life Shift podcast has candid conversations with people about the pivotal moments that changed their lives forever. This podcast can help you through your "life-altering moment." 

These people often have regular, full-time jobs and do podcasting as  their passion project. Sure, they want to be successful and make money. But their passion is affecting the lives of listeners. The passion of Spotify is quarterly earnings, and the hors d'ouevres at the next Board meeting. 

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Viewers of TV and listeners of radio don't seem to have the same allegiance to those media as podcast fans. They care about podcasting. Studies show that podcast superfans nurture podcasting.

These four trends are a threat to podcasting. The first two -- celebrity overflow and true-crime excess -- are relatively minor considerations that may organically fix themselves. 

But the last two -- podcasting as a refuge for misinformation and the independent podcasts being on the endangered list -- have severe consequences for podcasting. Could podcasting become a trash pile for extremist viewpoints that advocate violence, authoritarianism, censorship, and punishment to certain groups of citizens?

Finally, podcasting has become famous for its large numbers and expanding universe. Yet, in reality, active, sustainable independent podcasts have crested and are falling faster than Elon Musk's sanity.

When you search the top podcasts, you quickly notice that most of them began as an independent podcast, including Joe Rogan. What has Spotify, Wondery, iHeart and others contributed other than buying indie podcasts and smaller podcast networks? 

Indpendent podcasters need our collective support. What happens if the growth of indie podcasts halts and the majority of new podcasts come from large networks? A new show about a minor celebrity that had an affair with another minor celebrity's husband? Another true-crime show with lurid details and multiple suspects? Another TV celebrity who thinks podcasting is a breeze and phones in a performance. 

The Life Shift podcast is about real people who faced a life crisis and met that challenge. So is Multispective. Both are independent podcasts.

Or, you can listen to a large podcast network show about a minor celebrity who had trouble finding room for her massive shoe collection. By the way, she had a large bunion on her left foot. True story.